401 Monthly Analysis – Confusion! 4816

The monthly analysis on my two 401K funds continues to show a cautionary outlook as it abandons stock funds. Meanwhile my ICE system on SPY shows an up signal which suggests an up signal on stock funds. This is a cautionary tale as the monthly analysis has not turned to stock funds yet. Investing in bond funds usually means that we are expecting bonds to rise as investors take flight from stocks.

I have just started putting money into my new current company’s 401K and have not yet started any analysis. Based on my previous company’s 401K monthly analysis the Fidelity GOVT Income Fund is at the top of the list. I will increase my holdings in that fund. In a past 401K company holdings I have, the PIMCO GL BD ADM fund and PIMCO REAL RETN ADMN funds are at the top. They are both bond funds. The Realty fund is next in line and has also shown strength.

Confusing tale on the tape = Caution = Stay in Bond funds… 

401K Monthly Analysis – Change in Signal 31216

401K Monthly Analysis – Change in Signal 31216

My monthly analysis is a week late. This is mainly because we moved across the country with a new job and I have had numerous problems with the internet and my personal laptop. And although this is my personal blog on investing, I would still like to be consistent in posting the 401K Monthly analysis during the first weekend of a new month.

The S&P 500 has given an exit short signal a few days back. That means we can get back into our 401K funds if we wish to. I will be soon starting a new 401K plan with my current company. The chart on SPY represents where the overall market is and shows that for now we have seen a short term bottom.

In my past employer’s 401K funds the strongest funds to put money into are the Spartan 500 fund, the Fidelity Fund and Fidelity Growth Strategies. Attached below are charts on the Spartan 500 and Fidelity Growth Strategies. I am still cautious and will only invest a portion of my funds into these and/or try to time my entries after a pull back.

Recently I had good success with short term trading NUGT using end-of-day data and buying and selling using market limit orders. It is a leveraged Gold Miner's fund that moves very quickly, so one has to really pay attention to the technicals. 

401K Monthly Analysis – All Bond funds 2816

The market remains in a downward position; but looking at the chart below on SPY, I see that support is still holding. Support is the red horizontal line. In fact the slow stochastics is showing an upward tilt. However price is still below the blue line so our posture should be to look for trades on the down side. See chart on SPY below.

Interestingly the monthly 401K funds are decidedly negative. This is demonstrated by my last employer’s 401K fund choices where the preference is only to be in FGOVX which is the Fidelity Govt Income Fund, a bond fund. See chart on FGOVX below. No other fund choices are recommended!

And in the 401K choices for another employer I was with, the only two funds recommended are FGOVX and PIMCO GL BD ADM. None of the stock funds are positive. So we sit and wait. No hurry to rush in.

I did dip my toes into the NUGT leveraged gold miner’s fund at around $25 and got out this week at $37. Nice tidy profit in a week. But caution – this ETF will move fast and can smack you. Today it dropped 11%. See chart below.

I have recently changed employer and taken a new job. What used to be my current employer's 401K funds has now become my last employer. And the employer before that I refer to as another employer. I cannot wait to start another 401K with my new, current employer.

401K Monthly Analysis – What a start to 2016!

My posting has been a week late as I have moved to California with a job change. It has been busy, hectic for me and has left our whole family with a feeling of being displaced (which we have been!). It will take some time to settle down. We are still in a temporary rental. It took a week to just get Time Warner Cable to come and give us internet and cable. But the market waits for no one and it started this year with a bang. My chart on SPY gave an exit signal back in 11/27/15 and I have to say that I have been out of the markets as I am very conservative. The advice for a more aggressive investor would be to follow the monthly choices but even that has shown weakness finally and the signal is exit.

In my current employer’s 401K choices, the word is nothing looks positive so it is time to exit. It is unbelievable how fast the market has dropped. It is also at a place of support and if it penetrates through that support level then we have a lot further to go. Normally I would expect a bounce before the drop. As for me, I am staying out and will not dip my toe in.

In my previous employer’s 401K choices I see the same. Everything looks negative on the monthly analysis. That does not happen too often. Best to exit and stay out.

Oil has been crashing and now with Iran coming on stream shortly, the world will be flooded with more oil. No one is willing to cut back production. OPEC is neutralized. The Saudis and Iranians are in serious dispute and very upset with each other over the shooting of a cleric. The Pakistani Prime Minister is hopping between the two countries to ease tension. Never have I seen that before. Russia and the Ruble is down. So is the Canadian currency with oil sliding… what a start to 2016!

401K Monthly Analysis 12/17/15

The market is again at a crucial juncture. It wants to climb higher but the pressure of daily and weekly resistance is against its doing so. My daily and weekly time frame charts on SPY both show downward signals. See the charts below…That is really quite unusual. I am sitting on the side lines right now. I had dipped my toes in for a put option position on SPY but quickly exited with a small profit after the market went down and rushed up on Friday.

In my previous employer’s 401K, the recommendations are to be in Cohen & Steers Realty fund, Fidelity Contra fund and American Century Income Instl. Vanguard Instl Index is also a valid choice after these three.

In my current employer’s 401K the fund choices are Spartan 500 and Fidelity Growth. That means the third choice would be cash or money market.

France attacked by ISIS 11/15/15

France experienced an attack by ISIS. I am sorry to hear about those that were killed and their families for the loss of loved ones and the many injured people. Their lives changed. Terrorism adds another layer of uncertainty to the markets. After approaching the highs, the market is withdrawing and I am seeing sell signals. I am out of the market with the exception of a position in a bond fund using the Ivy Portfolio strategy. Also I am still in the vertical calls I had sold on the Nasdaq100 QQQ. That expires in December so I will hold it for a little longer to get more time decay before exiting. Both these positions do better when the market goes down.

SPY has an exit long signal so those that want to preserve capital will want to exit now. Stochastic is bottoming out so it is likely to see a bounce after the recent drops. Although with a terrorist attack, people may not be in a mood to go long. I suppose the computer programs running on algorithms really don’t care.

See chart below on S&P500 (SPY) now has an exit long signal. I usually use it to exit my 401K positions; but since I did not go long in the first place, no changes are needed for me. 

401K Monthly Analysis – Clawing back 11/6/15

The market has clawed its way back to almost its highs. See the chart below on the Spartan 500 fund. It is the only entry open in my current employer’s choices as most of the others are still flashing caution. Emerging markets are very weak. In this environment we would expect bond funds to strengthen but bond funds are retreating at the threat of increasing interest rates. The market is in a quandary as to how to react to the real possibility of a fed interest rate hike in time for Christmas. Unemployment numbers are at its lowest it has been in many years. The US dollar is strengthening at the possibility of higher interest rates, causing oil to remain low. That and the glut in oil supply and that China may be hitting a plateau. We could get a nice Santa rally. I am still cautious and although I should be in the markets, am taking some time out.

In my previous employer’s 401K funds the top choices are Fidelity Contra fund, Fidelity Mt Vernon Growth and Artisan Mid Cap Fund.

In my current employer’s 401K the fund choice is Spartan 500 Fund. Chart below. I would say stay part cash with the rest as there is still plenty of signs that the trend may be tiring. 

See the chart below on the Spartan 500 fund. It is a snapshot over 7 years and shows how the trend has held long for quite some time without a serious draw down, or recession. And with unemployment way down, and Christmas coming up, I don't see a recession in the immediate horizon. However interest rates will likely go up.