The market has clawed its way back to almost its highs. See
the chart below on the Spartan 500 fund. It is the only entry open in my
current employer’s choices as most of the others are still flashing caution. Emerging
markets are very weak. In this environment we would expect bond funds to
strengthen but bond funds are retreating at the threat of increasing interest rates.
The market is in a quandary as to how to react to the real possibility of a fed
interest rate hike in time for Christmas. Unemployment numbers are at its
lowest it has been in many years. The US dollar is strengthening at the possibility
of higher interest rates, causing oil to remain low. That and the glut in oil supply
and that China may be hitting a plateau. We could get a nice Santa rally. I am
still cautious and although I should be in the markets, am taking some time
out.
In my previous employer’s 401K funds the top choices are
Fidelity Contra fund, Fidelity Mt Vernon Growth and Artisan Mid Cap Fund.
In my current employer’s 401K the fund choice is Spartan
500 Fund. Chart below. I would say stay part cash with the rest as there is
still plenty of signs that the trend may be tiring.
See the chart below on the Spartan 500 fund. It is a snapshot over 7 years and shows how the trend has held long for quite some time without a serious draw down, or recession. And with unemployment way down, and Christmas coming up, I don't see a recession in the immediate horizon. However interest rates will likely go up.
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