401K Monthly Analysis – What a start to 2016!

My posting has been a week late as I have moved to California with a job change. It has been busy, hectic for me and has left our whole family with a feeling of being displaced (which we have been!). It will take some time to settle down. We are still in a temporary rental. It took a week to just get Time Warner Cable to come and give us internet and cable. But the market waits for no one and it started this year with a bang. My chart on SPY gave an exit signal back in 11/27/15 and I have to say that I have been out of the markets as I am very conservative. The advice for a more aggressive investor would be to follow the monthly choices but even that has shown weakness finally and the signal is exit.

In my current employer’s 401K choices, the word is nothing looks positive so it is time to exit. It is unbelievable how fast the market has dropped. It is also at a place of support and if it penetrates through that support level then we have a lot further to go. Normally I would expect a bounce before the drop. As for me, I am staying out and will not dip my toe in.

In my previous employer’s 401K choices I see the same. Everything looks negative on the monthly analysis. That does not happen too often. Best to exit and stay out.

Oil has been crashing and now with Iran coming on stream shortly, the world will be flooded with more oil. No one is willing to cut back production. OPEC is neutralized. The Saudis and Iranians are in serious dispute and very upset with each other over the shooting of a cleric. The Pakistani Prime Minister is hopping between the two countries to ease tension. Never have I seen that before. Russia and the Ruble is down. So is the Canadian currency with oil sliding… what a start to 2016!