401K Monthly Analysis – Hacked! 12/17/16

Our home PCs were hacked, network compromised. That has been the reason I have been unable to post previously. The timing could not have been any worse. The hacker wiped out all the data and program files on my laptop. Metastock was not very cooperative. The technical people pointed me towards sales. The sales person said he was very busy with the sales calls due to Christmas and would call back… not really. And I am doing contract work in a different State than we live in so I had to leave my laptop at home and stay out of the markets while it roared upwards after the elections… this is one part of trading’s mental things… the regret for not participating in a run up that your system would be telling you to go into. Currently I have signed up for a VPN service for protection. I am writing this blog from a hotel using the VPN. As I write this I cannot help but think that Cyber attack is very powerful and can be extremely painful..

Back to the blog…

The S&P500 (SPY) chart points up based on my trading system. So is the Dow Jones 30. See charts for SPY and DIA.  The ETF for the Dow Jones 30 is DIA. The US Dollar is showing strength with the Fed’s interest rate increase. Gold funds are down. The chart on the GLD ETF is falling hard and so are Bond funds – see chart on FGOVX.

Going into one of my previous company’s 401K the top funds selected by my monthly analysis are Royce Opportunity, Fidelity Equity Income, Fidelity Freedom 2050 fund, Spartan 500 fund. Fidelity Govt Income Fund took a big hit. Royce Opportunity requires a long stay in the fund due to the redemption fee for getting out early. More in my next post.

401K Monthly Analysis – No change 100116

“My daily SPY analysis shows a down signal. Chart attached. This is using a custom trading system generated by ICE software for Metastock and using my preferences to customize it. The signal is leading and depends on the indicators selected. All trend following systems are lagging price. If we have profited from the last move up in the markets, this may be a time to pare down and get protective if you are cautious like me. “

-        This part of the blog from previously remains unchanged… On the chart for SPY (see below) I have circled 4 areas. These are times when the red 50 day EMA (Exponential moving average) turned flat/horizontal. Markets don’t stay flat forever and the inevitable outcome is a strong up or down move. The two red ellipses were down moves and the last green ellipse was an up move. There is a good chance that the markets could take off upward with a Hillary Clinton win, as the uncertainty would be gone. I think the Mexican Pesos would also stabilize. With a Trump win there will be more uncertainty and we know the markets roil against uncertainty as well as protectionism… In effect we are now sideways looking for an up or down direction…which does not help in our trading/investing/gambling… I call it trading.

“With my previous employer’s 401K funds, the top funds from the monthly analysis are Royce Opportunity, Fidelity Equity Income, Fidelity Blue Chip Growth and Spartan 500 fund (same as SPY). Royce is actually at the top but it is very volatile, and also has a short term trading redemption fee in case we want to get out within a month. Royce has recovered from its low of $8.46 price to $11.55 now. Considering it was at over $16, it moves around a lot. It is better to invest in Royce when all the stars are aligned as it can drop quickly. The FGOVX that I am still in is going nowhere. Still has an up signal on the weekly chart. “

-        This part of my blog from last month also remains completely the same… rather unusual…   

“I have put in a trade on ITRI at the recent secondary buy signal. Also closed out a nice trade on SHOP in my R/IRA. I hold TLT as a hedge against these trades. Currently I am in FB and MTCH, social media stocks. I have also started taking some longer term put positions on the Q’s in case the market tanks in the Fall before the elections.”

-        Update: I closed my ITRI trade for a handsome (15%) profit just as I did for SHOP previously. I sold FB at a small (3%) loss when I had a down signal but remain in MTCH which has gone up over 15%. I have added MDT stock which is slightly (2%) down from when I bought it. I will continue to hold TLT and my put options as a hedge. I am cautious. I believe the markets will go up but will tip toe in as the other side of the coin is a rapid 10-15% move down..

401K Monthly Analysis – A Down Signal? 9316

My daily SPY analysis shows a down signal. Chart attached. This is using a custom trading system generated by ICE software for Metastock and using my preferences to customize it. The signal is leading and depends on the indicators selected. All trend following systems are lagging price. If we have profited from the last move up in the markets, this may be a time to pare down and get protective if you are cautious like me.

With my previous employer’s 401K funds, the top funds from the monthly analysis are Royce Opportunity, Fidelity Equity Income, Fidelity Blue Chip Growth and Spartan 500 fund (same as SPY). Royce is actually at the top but it is very volatile, and also has a short term trading redemption fee in case we want to get out within a month. Royce has recovered from its low of $8.46 price to $11.55 now. Considering it was at over $16, it moves around a lot. It is better to invest in Royce when all the stars are aligned as it can drop quickly. The FGOVX that I am still in is going nowhere. Still has an up signal on the weekly chart.  

I have not started analyzing my current employer’s 401K funds but I will soon as I am aggressively saving there…

I have put in a trade on ITRI at the recent secondary buy signal. Also closed out a nice trade on SHOP in my R/IRA. Credit goes to Motley Fool for the pick...I hold TLT as a hedge against these trades. Currently I am in FB and MTCH, social media stocks. I have also started taking some longer term put positions on the Q’s in case the market tanks in the Fall before the elections.

401K Monthly Analysis - Higher 8716

The market continues to ignore any disappointing news and head on higher. Brexit gave us a reason to pause but we are over that it seems. SPY is pointed up. So is QQQ and the Diamonds (DIA) Dow Jones 30. See charts below on SPY and QQQ. The market is not concerned with the US elections. I suspect that is because the outcome is likely less uncertain based on recent polling.

My previous employer’s monthly analysis shows that the top funds to be in are Royce Opportunities, Fidelity Blue Chip Fund, Spartan 500 and Fidelity Income fund. Royce is a very volatile fund and has a short term redemption fee charged if you get it and get out in a month. It is fund that you have to commit leaving money into.

I am ready to start my next experiment in trading. I have been trialing my automated trading program (Bandit) with real-time data and simulation money on a VPS and the performance over a year has been very positive. It is now time to turn on the real thing. I will not be looking over my shoulder at it… it will be running on its own with a stop loss and take profit levels for about 2 ½ hours each day in the morning trading Nasdaq futures… Let us see how well real-time performance does vs forward simulation. 

401K Monthly Analysis – Summer Rally or Not 7/4/16

My daily SPY analysis shows an exit down signal; which I interpret as Up; but the market has been trading sideways for a while. The resolution to the sideways move will either be up or down. With Brexit, we saw volatility spike and then quietly ebb away. Fade the down move the market said. So here we are again at a sideways situation. What can I squeeze out of the charts for clues? And what are they telling us right now?

Gold has been steadily moving up. I have to believe that based on the chart for GLD shown below. NUGT, the Gold Miner’s ETF has gone nuts. Over the last few months it has moved up from the 20s to 144. Talk about a big move…  And the bond funds have also gone up. See chart for TLT, 20 year Treasury bond fund ETF, below. And stocks? Well they are also holding their own. But something has to give. We can’t have Gold, bond funds and stock funds all harmoniously going up. They don’t like each other…Which will give ground?

Looking at the chart for SPY I see a slight divergence between the indicator peaks, (red line) and the SPY’s peaks (blue line). SPY has gone up but not convincingly. So here I go again. I will be cautious and stay on the side lines. If we breakout then the market will rip and I will be crying about missing the Summer rally for sure!

With my previous employer’s 401K funds, the top funds from the monthly analysis are Spartan 500 fund (same as SPY), Fidelity Equity Income and Fidelity Growth Strategies. Royce is actually at the top but it is very volatile, and also has a short term trading redemption fee in case I want to get out within a month.  

I have not started downloading and analyzing my current employer’s 401K funds. But I will next month. I am putting as much money as I can into my 401K every month; all into a docile fund. 

401K Monthly Analysis – SPY Conflicts 6316

The S&P500 (SPY) points down. Attached below is a chart of SPY showing the down signal. My slower monthly 401K system has switched from Bond funds like Fidelity Govt fund and is showing entries into equity. What do I do? I decided a while back that I will follow my overall master switch (SPY) and use that to override any 401K picks in the equity arena. That means I will exit my Fidelity Govt funds and stay in money market for now.

Going into my previous company’s 401K the top funds selected by my monthly analysis are Royce Opportunity, Fidelity Equity Income and Spartan 500 fund, which are all equity type funds. But since my choices are governed by the SPY exit signal, I am just going to remain in a money market fund for now.

I am invested in a couple of equities, oil and another ETF. I will follow the technical signals on those separately. When there is an exit signal on oil, I will get out. I have also seen an entry signal in EEM Emerging Markets and IIF India Fund. I have taken a small position in the India fund. The overall equity markets seems to want to go up. But it is burdened by the possibility of a slowdown and soft earnings. Technical signals is the beacon that I follow.

A Case for Oil vs Gold 52916

Which is stronger right now? Oil or Gold?

I have put some money in Oil. Not Gold. Looking at the charts, I see a down signal on GLD. Also Gold Miners ETF NUGT has taken a big hit lately dropping from over $100 to $70. Being a leveraged ETF it moves quickly, up or down.

The ETF I have purchased for oil is USL. Currently it has worked off a bottom and has slowly been on an incline upwards. See chart below on USL. Fundamentalists will provide the reasons why. We have both a major and minor signal pointing up. Summer months and more travel and higher oil consumption? If the market’s mood changes I will be quick to exit. I would rather see my account creep upwards at a slow pace than hold and pray over the next 5 years while it takes a beating. That is my conservative mind set.

OIL (USL) CHART

 GOLD (GLD) CHART

Additionally I have a buy signal on QQQ and DIA. That means a buy signal on the Nasdaq 100 ETF and the Dow Jones 30 ETF. My cautious play with that is to sell some QQQ vertical put spreads with a delta of around 40 and with a near month expiration. My plan is to hold it for a couple more weeks with the expectations that it will go sideways or up, and I would keep the credit premium. The max gain and loss on this transaction is capped. It is also a cautious play.

QQQ CHART

I am also seeing a buy signal on EEM (Emerging Markets ETF) and on IIF, the India Fund. Think I will put in for a small buy on the IIF. It can move up quite rapidly. But if it goes down, then I will follow the exit signal and take a small loss. It seems a safer play to buy IIF with a corresponding buy signal on EEM… no guarantees though!

401K Monthly Analysis – Sell in May and… 5/8/16

It is May again and the old proverb “Sell in May and Go Away” comes to mind. But will that be the right move?

When I did my monthly analysis on my previous employer’s 401K where I have funds in, the top choice was to stay in Fidelity Govt Income Fund. I am currently 20% invested in that and rest is money market. I am cautious on my investing and see no point in taking unnecessary risks right now. The market is pretty murky and one cannot clearly see the bottom. See my chart below on DIA (Dow Jones 30 ETF). It shows a divergence in price versus the indicator above it.  See the orange line sloping down off the indicator’s last two peaks while the green line off the price peaks is sloping upwards. That suggests that although price is rising, this is not a strong move.

The latest jobs report was tepid. To me that is actually good. I would rather see slow growth than a rapid one and us reaching full employment rapidly and interest rates rising. As it is we are at 5% unemployment which is historically a low number. It is certainly a lot lower than 7 years back when we had 10% unemployment and jobs were tanking. China showed lower exports and imports - shrinking. And my emerging markets chart (EEM) has fired off a down signal. See chart below.

The US dollar actually dropped below its support level. And what has been rising lately is Gold. See chart below on GLD. What has been rising very, very rapidly is the 3xleveraged Gold Miners ETF fund… NUGT. I will write about that in my next blog.

Meanwhile I will look at cautious trades such as selling vertical call spreads on market ETFs such as DIA..

401 Monthly Analysis – Confusion! 4816

The monthly analysis on my two 401K funds continues to show a cautionary outlook as it abandons stock funds. Meanwhile my ICE system on SPY shows an up signal which suggests an up signal on stock funds. This is a cautionary tale as the monthly analysis has not turned to stock funds yet. Investing in bond funds usually means that we are expecting bonds to rise as investors take flight from stocks.

I have just started putting money into my new current company’s 401K and have not yet started any analysis. Based on my previous company’s 401K monthly analysis the Fidelity GOVT Income Fund is at the top of the list. I will increase my holdings in that fund. In a past 401K company holdings I have, the PIMCO GL BD ADM fund and PIMCO REAL RETN ADMN funds are at the top. They are both bond funds. The Realty fund is next in line and has also shown strength.

Confusing tale on the tape = Caution = Stay in Bond funds… 

401K Monthly Analysis – Change in Signal 31216

401K Monthly Analysis – Change in Signal 31216

My monthly analysis is a week late. This is mainly because we moved across the country with a new job and I have had numerous problems with the internet and my personal laptop. And although this is my personal blog on investing, I would still like to be consistent in posting the 401K Monthly analysis during the first weekend of a new month.

The S&P 500 has given an exit short signal a few days back. That means we can get back into our 401K funds if we wish to. I will be soon starting a new 401K plan with my current company. The chart on SPY represents where the overall market is and shows that for now we have seen a short term bottom.

In my past employer’s 401K funds the strongest funds to put money into are the Spartan 500 fund, the Fidelity Fund and Fidelity Growth Strategies. Attached below are charts on the Spartan 500 and Fidelity Growth Strategies. I am still cautious and will only invest a portion of my funds into these and/or try to time my entries after a pull back.

Recently I had good success with short term trading NUGT using end-of-day data and buying and selling using market limit orders. It is a leveraged Gold Miner's fund that moves very quickly, so one has to really pay attention to the technicals. 

401K Monthly Analysis – All Bond funds 2816

The market remains in a downward position; but looking at the chart below on SPY, I see that support is still holding. Support is the red horizontal line. In fact the slow stochastics is showing an upward tilt. However price is still below the blue line so our posture should be to look for trades on the down side. See chart on SPY below.

Interestingly the monthly 401K funds are decidedly negative. This is demonstrated by my last employer’s 401K fund choices where the preference is only to be in FGOVX which is the Fidelity Govt Income Fund, a bond fund. See chart on FGOVX below. No other fund choices are recommended!

And in the 401K choices for another employer I was with, the only two funds recommended are FGOVX and PIMCO GL BD ADM. None of the stock funds are positive. So we sit and wait. No hurry to rush in.

I did dip my toes into the NUGT leveraged gold miner’s fund at around $25 and got out this week at $37. Nice tidy profit in a week. But caution – this ETF will move fast and can smack you. Today it dropped 11%. See chart below.

I have recently changed employer and taken a new job. What used to be my current employer's 401K funds has now become my last employer. And the employer before that I refer to as another employer. I cannot wait to start another 401K with my new, current employer.

401K Monthly Analysis – What a start to 2016!

My posting has been a week late as I have moved to California with a job change. It has been busy, hectic for me and has left our whole family with a feeling of being displaced (which we have been!). It will take some time to settle down. We are still in a temporary rental. It took a week to just get Time Warner Cable to come and give us internet and cable. But the market waits for no one and it started this year with a bang. My chart on SPY gave an exit signal back in 11/27/15 and I have to say that I have been out of the markets as I am very conservative. The advice for a more aggressive investor would be to follow the monthly choices but even that has shown weakness finally and the signal is exit.

In my current employer’s 401K choices, the word is nothing looks positive so it is time to exit. It is unbelievable how fast the market has dropped. It is also at a place of support and if it penetrates through that support level then we have a lot further to go. Normally I would expect a bounce before the drop. As for me, I am staying out and will not dip my toe in.

In my previous employer’s 401K choices I see the same. Everything looks negative on the monthly analysis. That does not happen too often. Best to exit and stay out.

Oil has been crashing and now with Iran coming on stream shortly, the world will be flooded with more oil. No one is willing to cut back production. OPEC is neutralized. The Saudis and Iranians are in serious dispute and very upset with each other over the shooting of a cleric. The Pakistani Prime Minister is hopping between the two countries to ease tension. Never have I seen that before. Russia and the Ruble is down. So is the Canadian currency with oil sliding… what a start to 2016!