It is time for my monthly 401K analysis. The backdrop is
very interesting. I see a second confirming up signal from my ICE trading system
on SPY (S&P500). Since this is the system I use to decide whether to stay
long in my 401K or not, I am invested in 401K although not at a 100% level due
to my conservative nature…During the week, DIA (represents a tradable fund for
Dow Jones 30) showed an up signal and Friday on the pullback I received a minor
up signal. On the other hand recency data from Friday says the market turned
down in an ugly manner particularly the Nasdaq 100 tech sector (QQQ). As I
pointed out in a previous post, the Qs are showing a down signal and continue
to move downwards. This is interesting as SPY and DIA are still up while the QQQs
are tugging the market downwards. Unfortunately no one can really predict which
side will win this tug-of-war. All I need to do is follow my rules and not over
think this conundrum..
In my current employer’s 401K the top choices are Fidelity
Large Cap, Spartan 500 Index, Fidelity Eq Income, while WFA SPL Midcap VL has
been showing some recent strength again and is a good pick.
In my previous employer’s choices I see Domini Soc Eq,
Vanguard Inst Index and Spartan Ext MKT as the top picks. Lazard Emerging Mkt
is showing recent strength and is also a possible pick. However it is far more
volatile and can go up or down much faster than the market.
Beyond these choices, Ford stock has given me a buy signal.
Interestingly it has broken its downtrend line and MACT is also rising. I
bought a position into it and will consider adding on a pullback. My call
options on SU are doing well as SU has been on a fast track upwards since my buy signal on 3/25/14 and break upwards from the down trend line.... see chart below. Of course
this cannot go on forever and a sharp pullback is in order. My thoughts are to
sell half my call options now and buy back more on a pullback.
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