401K Analysis – Market is still pointed Up 11/10/13

It is always more comfortable to second guess the market and hedge our bets by saying I expect a pullback. The stock market cannot go up forever and will inevitably pullback. The charts are still pointed up as evidenced by the chart on the S&P500 (SPY). See below. Charts look oversold, so we might see a short term pullback.

In my current employer’s choice of stocks, the mutual fund with the strongest momentum upwards is the Royce Opportunity fund. Royce funds have been usually in the top three but because of high redemption fees I stayed out of it. If you are however in Royce, I would continue to hold it and you should be seeing nice gains in your 401K. The next two remain WFA SPL MidCap VL and NB MDCP GRTH Trust. The Fidelity DIV Intl fund is showing strength, so if I want an international fund, that would be my choice. See charts below.

In my previous employer’s 401K mutual fund selection, top of the list is Vanguard Explorer Admiral, then Artisan Mid Cap Val INST, then Fidelity Growth and Fidelity Contra is also popping in.

I remain biased upwards at this time. The momentum method that I use for my 401K analysis has done very well for me. It has less in and outs and over time appears better than my daily charts analysis on mutual funds. That may not be true for individual stocks however. The top moving mutual funds stay on track for large periods of time. My experience has been very good with this momentum system..

By the way, IYR has taken a nasty move to the downside, and the last post “Idea for a Long Trade” has not worked out. Despite lining up the broader market with the sector and the individual stock, this one went south. I have to shrug it off and stay with plan.