The markets have dropped fast and furious on high volume.
Then it bounced back up before taking another kick to the guts on Friday… so far I am doing good aren’t I? I am stating
what the media journalists do. State what has happened in the past as that is fully
known. Sometimes it is stated in very worldly, knowledgeable language giving
the reader the idea that the writer must know what is going to happen next.
Fact is no one knows. Let me repeat that. I don’t know. So what am I doing
writing an investment blog that I don’t make a dime out of and I don’t know
what is going to happen next?
Blogging gives me a chance to think. I admit some of that is
on the spot as to what is going through my mind right now. It isn’t like I
write a blog piece and then let it gestate for a few days, tune it and then
publish it. It is more like what Trump is doing. Firing off what is in his head
without the writers preparing set speeches. I am not against set speeches as it
is also important for Presidential candidates to outline their position instead
of just intoning “I am the best. See how rich I am? Trust me. I will fix this.
Trust me. I will do a better job than anyone else”. That would be like my
saying “The market is going up. I know it is. Trust me. I know the market is
going up” Actually the market goes up
more often than down and if I took that position all the time, I would be right
statistically more often than wrong! And that is what financial advisers do.
But this is not about Trump, Fiorina, Clinton or Sanders. I
remain out of the markets as the technical analysis shows weakness in the
charts. That works for me. We have seen many of the indexes go through the
dreaded death cross… even my work associate from Minnesota, who has never claimed
to be an investment expert, asked me “should I get out of the market because of
the death cross?” . In today’s world you don’t need me to explain what a death
cross is. Google it and find out. But
there is weakness in the markets right now and negative inflation because of
the low price of oil. Oil affects everything (except college tuition and health
care costs). Transportation and material costs which make up a large portion of
cost of goods sold is significantly down. That appears to be because of excessive
supply, so I will stay on the side lines and watch the market from a distance.
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