The S&P 500 (SPY) remains in an uptrend but short term in a
pull back. As one of my IIT classmates and expert market Guru from India, Deepak
Mohoni states “When you buy on pull backs you can only be wrong one time”. There is a saying that “the trend is your
friend, until the end”… and right now we are in a pull back.
My chart on SPY shows an exit long signal from 2/2/15 and I
am taking a break from participating in 401K funds. See chart on SPY below. I am conservative as far as
investing is concerned and will give up upside gains to avoid large losses. I
show long signals on IYR which is a Real Estate ETF and also in VEU which is a
Global fund excluding the US. TLT, Long Term Treasury fund also shows an up
signal. I am long these funds.
In my current employer’s 401K funds, the top choices are
Fidelity Growth Strategies, Fidelity Blue Chip fund and Fidelity Div Intl fund.
Royce Opportunities is also showing some recovery from its large drop. Attached
is a chart on Fidelity Growth Strategies. Since SPY is showing an exit long, I
am out of my 401K.
In my past employer’s 401K fund, the top choices are Cohen
& Steers Real Estate fund, Fidelity Spartan Extended Market Index and
Fidelity Mt. Vernon Growth fund.
Some market pundits are trying to stay ahead of the market
by calling for a potential drop in markets for 2015 since the market has been
plodding upwards for 6 years. SPY or the S&P500 has never gone into a major
decline without the 50 day exponential moving average (ema) dropping below the
200 day ema. From the chart on SPY I see that the red line (50 day ema) is
still above the black line (200 day ema). I think there is still plenty of time
before we see a major decline … at least 3-6 months. I try not to get too ahead
of myself with long predictions as no one really knows. However based on the
past, I would say we have time… and yet I am exited on my 401K… I am
conservative, no doubt. I still follow the Ivy Portfolio signals and right now,
it has me long in IYR, VEU and even DBC. The last one is a commodity fund and
it has dropped to half its value… and I just entered it end of last week. It
looks like it made a double bottom. If
the world can reach an agreement with Iran on their nuclear program, then
oil will flow freely from Iran into the markets and we could see past support
for oil breaking and oil going much lower. There is some thought that there
will be a greater need for oil tanker storage. Stocks like NAT (Nordic American
Tankers) may be a better investment as oil producers produce more and more oil…
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