The S&P500 (SPY) points down. Attached below is a chart of SPY showing the down signal. Note the blue bubble which was an exit long signal a while back that I posted when it occurred. This sets the stage for the market going deeper downwards. This is the proverbial master switch that says it is not a good time to be long. My slower monthly 401K system is merrily suggesting staying in equity funds however. What do I do? I have decided that from now on, I will follow my overall master switch and use that to override any 401K picks in the equity arena. That means exit my equity funds.
Going into my current company’s 401K the top funds selected by my monthly analysis are Fidelity Div Intl, WFA SPL Midcap VL and Fidelity Disciplined Equity fund. However, they are all starting to turn downwards and I will exit them based on my first rule outline above. I will place some money into bond funds like the PIMCO funds
As far as the 401K analysis on my previous employer’s funds, I see that top of the picks is Fidelity Invst Div Int, Lazard Emerging Market, and T Rowe Price Intl Disc. I will move money away from all these and place some into bond funds.
Also below is a chart on IIF, India Fund. It had a buy signal back in June and if one followed it, the return would have been a nice 17% with an exit signal marked today for market open tomorrow. Interesting that SPY, IIF are both facing downwards? Why fight them with long positions in my 401K? Worst case is the market goes up and I miss some gains. It is much better to stay long in my 401K when the overall market is long as well.
No comments:
Post a Comment