What’s on my mind today is Stop losses. And I what I have to write about is going to rub some people the wrong way. But this is my blog and it’s about how I trade and look at things. It is also about how I have changed and how I have learned to take a lickin’ and keep on ticking..
Back in the early days when I knew nothing about the markets, I just thought everything went up over time. Sure things would drop, or pause; but in the end, there was only one resolution – and that was up. Therefore I was confident and cocky. When markets went down, I was only purchasing more shares of stock at the lower prices. A fire sale I would think.
Well, my first dose of reality was hard. It was 2002 and as I have written before, my mutual funds went South, and I mean deep South. When I purchased my technical analysis software and charted my mutual funds, I found they were deep red and I was frozen. I did not have the nerves to exit the funds and transfer the funds into money market funds in my 401K. I was part of the crowd that looked the other way. We did not open our quarterly statements as the news was bad. Somehow things would be better if I did not look. And yes – I heard the following from an associate– we don’t have a loss until we close the trade. Wrong!
I have changed. I have learned that a lot of my trades are wrong and unsuccessful. But if I follow my systems, then my winners last a lot longer than my losers. A key to these systems is being able to cut my losses quickly when I get an exit signal. Case in point is the following chart on Ford (F). F gave a long (Light Green up arrow) and I entered a trade that went South on me (Maroon down arrow). When I saw the down signal, I exited. I have no idea how much longer it will stay down; but I will patiently wait for the next entry. Yes – the volume was very high on the last drop, which could be a capitulation. But what if it was not?
I have lived in the Tier 1 automotive world. I have seen a friend stick $700,000 – his entire 401K into Visteon (VC) stock at $12 and ride it down to $2. When the stock crawled back to $5, Visteon closed that option for Visteon employees and he was forcibly exited at $5. Lucky for him, as the stock finally went to 0 and I am sure he would have ridden it down into the ground, as Visteon went bankrupt. So did GM and Delphi and I am sure there were many people who were like I used to be – looking the other way, not opening their quarterly statements, and hoping it would get back up..
I have learned to take my lickin’ and keep on ticking. When F turns around, the charts will show it and I will be ready. Everyone needs to have a stop loss, even if it is a mental stop loss. I remember telling a friend who had $75,000 in Delphi stock at $11. Delphi had gone down to $5 and he looked sick. I told him to get out of the stock. If he wanted to get back on the ride, then get back in when it climbed above $6. William O’Neill suggests an 8% stop loss level. My friend rode Delphi down to 0. He was a PhD type – but the stock market froze him and he could not act to cut his losses and tell himself he was wrong.
I believe one of the key learnings for a person who wants to learn to navigate the markets successfully using technical analysis is to understand how to use a stop loss, that is to get out when things turn against you, and get back in when the winds of change favor re-entry. Learning to use a technical trading system enables me to follow this discipline.
Great article!
ReplyDeleteMy first real experience of investing was in April 2008. I thought March 08 bottom was real. Second day after I put money in, market rallied ~2%. After that there were small daily gains/losses. My account did not have a real drawdown. By later May, the account grew by more than 5%.
At that time, I was listening to Rick Edelman radio show every Sunday 2 pm. Rick Edelman is a mutual fund manager and he pushed buy and hold idea into my head. He always says the market always goes up over time.
So when June 08 came and market dropped big, my common sense told me that something was wrong and I should get out. But Rick Edelman radio show kept me in the market. Only when late July/early August came, when market had some bear release rally, I got out, and avoided the big drops in September, .... I never listened to Rick Edelman show after that.
Suntzuwarrior, we have all learned that no one can really predict the distant future. We have to rely on our technical tools to determine which way the wind is blowing. The difficult part is acting on the knowledge while disregarding others. Usually we learn at a high price. I sure did as I saw my well advertised Strong mutual funds get decimated in the dust in the 2002 carnage before I learned technical analysis. I try to listen to my technicals only.
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