It is Sunday morning and the first week of the month. That means it is time to do my monthly 401K analysis to select where to put my 401K money among the various mutual fund choices I have in each of the two companies that I have my Fidelity 401K funds in. One is my current company and the other is my previous company.
Cranked through the numbers and what they are saying is Go equities. Previously it said go partially long in equities and partially in Fidelity Government Income fund. My current company analysis is suggesting Royce Opportunities fund, Mid Cap and Fidelity Growth Strategies.
The previous company selection is Vanguard Explorer Admiral, Fidelity Extended Market Index fund and Artisan MidCap fund. Real estate is also moving but I have to avoid funds that make me stay in it 90 days or else they charge me redemption fees if I exchange it to money market before the 90 days of holding period. I noticed that Fidelity Government Income fund is now near the bottom of my list. The time to stay in it is over.
This is certainly a change and is in line with my early signal on 12/23/11 on SPY to go long. I am already vested partially long in the markets and with this analysis I will put my foot in deeper into the waters. I don’t like taking risk but I also don’t like leaving my money under the mattress doing nothing. I will go in but I will keep some level of hedge on should there come a Black Swan like event. I am currently re-reading Taleb’s book “Black Swan”. It is recommended reading.
Hi Rahul
ReplyDeleteWhat annualised ROI / IRR do you achieve ? Say in absolute terms & as compared to say S&P 500 or bank TD rate ? Hope you don't mind sharing.
Regards - Dhananjay Gurjar
Dhananjay, I am very conservative and prefer a equity curve that is gently sloping upwards. I use only 50% of my portfolio for equity trading, including 401K and R/IRA funds. Rest I trade in Bond ETFs (TIP, TLT), Commodities (GLD, IAU, OIH, USL), Real Estate (IYR, SPG), Currency (FXF, FXA, FXE, FXY, UUP). Sometimes I don't take all the signals I get and that is the area I am working to improve. I track a little less than S&P when it is positive, investing less of my funds while also buying hedges. But unlike the S&P, I have not had a losing year since 2003 - which is a key goal of mine!!
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