Waiting for my long entry 10/23/11

The market has been on a fast rise and my systems have flashed some long signals recently. The DJ30 symbolized by the ETF, DIA has now broken through its 200 day exp mov avg. That is a positive sign. I expect SPY to do the same.  The tough part for me is to be patient and wait for the pullback. Even tougher part is deciding how much pullback is enough and when to enter long. I want to go long when the trend is up but buy on a dip. In my 401K it is simpler as I will simply react to my 1/month analysis. I suspect I will see some long entries but that is TBD next week. No one said this personal portfolio management business is easy when you are a conservative manager and don’t like losses. Still, I should not complain.

CREE has not participated in the markets improved behavior and is still in a down trend. Not good. AMD is also looking very weak and has no sign of life. ORCL looks better. The solar companies have got annihilated. Look at FSLR and TAN and how bad they look. Those would have been terrible for covered calls. It is a mixed bag in the conglomerates that I track. TXT is showing a little life but volume on the up side is fading. JCI is holding up and so is TYC.. HRS is still weak after its fall from 53 to 37.  IR must be reacting to its last fundamental news – probably less than optimistic. In the energy area, it is again a mixed bag. AES, BP and SU Suncor energy are moving up but the coal companies are hurting. PCX and ANR are way down. Materials companies have taken a beating as well and some are showing signs of wanting to get back up. DOW has a buy signal but SCCO copper is still down and FOE is still reeling from its dive down. RGLD has come down from its pedestal. X has moved down but with a divergence is looking like it wants to go up. In the currency sector, I see buy signals on FXA, FXE and FXY. UUP the US dollar is long but has been swooning of late as the US markets have climbed. One sector that has weathered the storm well are the non-cyclical; CL, CLX and HNZ. I like ketchup. Perhaps I should look to do some covered calls with these. In my transportation watch, I see F moving on up and FEDEX is also acting perky. The Utilities are also holding up well while paying nice dividends. DUK is certainly on a tear.

Summarizing my look at my stocks in various sectors, the non-cyclical and utilities look strong. Transportation is showing some early strength. The rest are all split and you have to find your spots. Think I will wait for the pullback.