It is the beginning of the year and the gurus of the market
are selling their wares. One predicts how the market will do all year long
based on historical data. How much nonsense is that? Another one forecasts turning points by astrology… actually that has been more reliable than most
anything else I have seen. I am tired of listening to others. Why do we listen to others? Can we learn from others predictions? I
don’t think so. It may cause us to pause and not rely on our own systems. Are
we looking for confirmation? Why? The systems we develop have no additional
value if some one else says the same thing. Markets are mostly random except
for the occasional periods of time it follows a herd mentality and defies random statistics. The long, long run up hardly seems random to me. So why not just
follow your own system through thick or thin?
Looking at my charts I see SPY (S&P500) still long. No
changes yet and it has been upwards for a long time. When this chart signals
down or gives the exit blue bubble signal, I will go cash/money market in my 401K. I am
taking no chances.
The QQQ looks similar to SPY and seems to show a local top;
but it is in an overall uptrend.
EEM or Emerging markets is showing continued weakness as it
is below the blue Supertrend line and trending down. That means caution on China,
India etc. for now. I looked at a chart on China FXI and saw it was on a down
trend. India IIF is treading water sideways and wants to move up but weighed
down.
Gold GLD is showing some signs of life with an up signal but
still below the blue Supertrend line. I purchased some NUGT last week.
Long term treasury bond TLY is also perking up and shows an
up signal.
That is the current state… unlike the masters, I cannot
predict how long it will last but this is the direction my trades will be till
the directions change.
